As with any attack, planning must be done before any action can take place. The attack on Pearl Harbor was no exception. A little more than a month, on November 5, 1941, the Combined Japanese Fleet received Top-Secret Order Number 1, stating that in just over a month, Pearl Harbor, along with Malaya (now Malaysia), the Dutch East Indies, and the Philippines, was to be bombed. There was much preparation to do, and very little time to do it. Failure would not be an option, because failure would mean death, and in fact, the battle was a planned death for the kamikaze pilots.
The problem was that the relationship between the United States and Japan had rapidly worsened following Japan’s occupation of Indochina in 1940 and the subsequent threat to the Philippines, which is an American territory. With the seizure of the Cam Ranh naval base, located roughly 800 miles from Manila, something had to be dome. In response, the United States seized all Japanese assets within its borders and shut the Panama Canal to Japanese shipping. In September 1941, President Roosevelt, with a statement prepared by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, warned that the United States would go to war with Japan if it continued to invade territories in Southeast Asia or the South Pacific. The United States hoped, and yes even expected the Japanese to comply.
Nevertheless, despite ongoing negotiations between the United States Secretary of State and his Japanese counterpart to alleviate tensions, Hideki Tojo, the War Minister soon to become Prime Minister, was not inclined to retreat from occupied territories. Viewing the American “threat” of war as an ultimatum, he readied to initiate the first strike in a confrontation with the United States…the attack on Pearl Harbor.
We all know what happened next, but could it have been prevented? I don’t believe that Japan had any interest in preventing a war with the United States. So, it would have been up to the United States to pave the way for peace between the two countries…if that was even possible. Since I don’t believe it was possible, due to Japan’s plans, The other aspect of the question is how America might have prevented Pearl Harbor. It is likely that intelligence shortcomings and underestimation of the Japanese played a role. However, it is argued that the American military hawks and President Franklin Delano Roosevelt may have seen the attack as a necessary catalyst to persuade the nation to enter the war against the tyrannies of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. I don’t know for sure, and I hate to say that was exactly it, but I wonder if they expected the attack to be as bad as it ended up being.
Numerous theories speculate on whether Roosevelt, or even Great Britain’s Winston Churchill, had foreknowledge of the impending attack. However, it seems improbable. Military leaders typically do not permit such attacks due to the unpredictability of the consequences. Consider the possibilities: the attack occurring prematurely and sinking the carriers, the destruction of oil facilities, or the Japanese invasion and occupation of Hawaii. These are risks that no military leader would willingly take, regardless of their desire for a pretext to enter the war. It is probable that Roosevelt anticipated an attack, although the specifics of when and where remained uncertain.
To address the question of how America could have avoided Pearl Harbor, one must dig deeper into history, far beyond the oil embargoes of the early 1940s. It could be argued that the path to Pearl Harbor was set as early as July 8, 1853, when American Commodore Matthew Perry entered Tokyo Bay with his four ships, aiming to reestablish regular trade between Japan and the Western world. It all seemed innocent enough, but while Japan was once receptive to Portuguese, Spanish, and Dutch influences. Then, with each nation attempting to introduce Western culture and religion, Japan began to have issues with them. Within a few decades, these Western powers were expelled, leaving only the Dutch with limited trading privileges through Dejima, a small man-made island in Nagasaki.
The Japanese quickly assimilated the practices of their adversaries, which included adopting a Western-trained military. The Army was advised by the French and later the Germans, while the Navy was guided by British advisors and equipped with British-built warships. Japan managed to defeat its long-standing rival China, annexing Taiwan and Korea into its gradually expanding empire. In 1904-1905, Japan, was hardly a regional power a mere fifty years prior, overwhelmed Imperial Russia in a fierce conflict. The victory followed a surprise assault on the Russian Navy at Port Arthur…something that American military planners in 1941 should have taken notice of! The initial attack aimed to incapacitate the Russians, yet the pivotal battle occurred at Tsushima Straits, where Admiral Togo Heihaciro led the Japanese fleet to obliterate eight Russian battleships.
In World War I, which followed less than ten years later, Japan joined with the Russians and aided the British in seizing the German-held Tsingtao in China. Japan also took control of the Marianas, the Caroline Islands, and the Marshall Islands. All this further fueled Japan’s ambitions concerning Chinese territories and the American-
controlled Philippines for potential expansion. Then, came “the straw that broke the camel’s back” for the Americans, and with the threat against the Philippines, the attack of Pearl Harbor was set in motion…all due to the actions taken to protect the Philippines.
Had Perry not “opened” Japan, this sequence of events might not have unfolded. This is not to imply Japan would not have modernized, but the trajectory could have been altered. Without the Emperor’s restoration, the Boshin War might not have taken place, possibly preventing the swift military reforms that followed. Of course, all this could be speculation, but the experts think it is fact.
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